Electoral demography

Bryan · Thursday 4 December 2008 · 8:25 am

I received a nice email from the ABS …

I draw your attention to yesterday’s release by the Australian Bureau of Statistics of Australian Demographic Statistics, June Quarter 2008 (cat. no. 3101.0) and specifically the section at the end of the Main Features on Statistics for Parliamentary Representation.

The release can be found on the ABS website via this link: http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/3101.0?OpenDocument

The relevant section is on page 10 of the PDF file of the publication, or at the end of the “Summary Commentary” page on the website.

This updates information published in Information Paper: Determining Seats in the House of Representatives - Legislative Requirements for Provision of ABS Statistics, Australia, 2005 (cat. no. 3107.0.55.002).

Sometime today I will do the math to see if and where we might be losing or gaining seats for the next election.

Update: Antony has done the hard work for me …

New South Wales - 48 seats, down from the current 49

Victoria - 37 seats, unchanged

Queensland - 30 seats, up one from current 29

Western Australia - 15 seats, unchanged

South Australia - 11 seats, unchanged

Tasmania - 5 seats unchanged.

ACT - 2 seats, unchanged

NT - 2 seats, unchanged

ACNielsen and Galaxy: 55 to 45 in Labor’s favour

Bryan · Monday 17 November 2008 · 7:10 am

Galaxy: here and here.

ACNielsen: here and here.

Graphs here.

Morgan: 58.5 to 41.5 in Labor’s favour

Bryan · Saturday 15 November 2008 · 8:57 am

Report here.

Graphs here.

Newspoll: 55 to 45 in Labor’s favour

Bryan · Tuesday 11 November 2008 · 6:35 am

Data here

Report here

Graphs here

Morgan: 56.5 to 43.5 in Labor’s favour

Bryan · Friday 31 October 2008 · 9:36 pm

Report here.

Graphs here.